Co-ed Tourney Preview
by Chad Woodard

I apologize to all of my power ranking fans for being absent for the end of the season. My goal was to update my power rankings every week from mid-season forward, but now it is time for the tournament so let me try to make it up to you with tournament predictions.

FIRST ROUND

#8 Whitesnake (5-6) vs #9 Royal Wedding (4-6-1)

This regular season matchup was a nail-biter in Week4, with Whitesnake narrowly coming out on top 16-15. Unfortunately for Royal they will be missing Korb on Sunday, AND White adds Yugo. Double Whammy. Captain Bandit knows that the season is all about the tournament, and he made the smart moves on draft day although it cost White some games in the regular season to miss a top player. Royal might make it close, but unless they can get a substitute player for Korb I’m picking White in this one.

Prediction: White 13-9.

#4 Castle Grayskull (8-3) vs #13 Green Slime (2-9)

Gray and Green also met in Week 4 of the regular season, and The Castle avoided being Slimed by narrowly winning 15-12. Green ended the season with a win over Black to avoid the bottom seed, and Gray lost to Brown on Friday night to fall to the 4th seed overall. There is some speculation that Gray tanked for this matchup instead of a first round matchup against Black as I predicted the #3 seed would do in the final week. Green should and will take this personally, but they will not be able to overcome juggernaut Gray as they return to midseason form for the tournament.

Prediction: Gray 13-8.

#5 Solid Gold (7-4) vs #12 The Color Purple (3-8)

These 2 teams played each other just a couple days ago, and Gold walked away with an impressive 15-8 win. Honestly, as a captain, both of these teams scare the crap out of me on paper. I think if the top half of both of these rosters combined to make a team, they would take 3rd at sectionals (on paper). Thankfully for the rest of us, the games are not played on paper. Gold has faltered slightly towards season’s end without a few key people, and Purple has definitely underachieved all season with personnel issues of their own. Purple’s defense is going to step up and slow down Gold, but despite one of their best games of the season they are going to get burned by the hardcap.

Prediction: Gold 12-11.

And on the other side of the bracket…

#7 Jerry Brown (5-6) vs #10 Bullet the Blue Sky (4-7)

These two teams met at the halfway mark of the season with Brown taking it 14-11 in Week 5. My inside sources told me that Brown has played most of the season with 4 men, so they are definitely on the same page. In fact, in their Friday night game against Gray in the fog, you couldn’t tell who was who, but it didn’t phase Brown one bit in their big win. They know when and where their players are going to be. The guys on both of these teams can definitely get the job done with Brown’s money hucks and Blue Sky’s speedy squirrelly handlers. The ladies are equally capable on both sides, and I was surprised when we played them that neither teams’ ladies hucked enough. Put the disc out there ladies, and let the guys chase it down! This is a very even matchup. I had a chance to watch both of these teams play on Friday night. Although Blue Sky will take a close half, Brown will eventually get the comeback win with their zone.

Prediction: Brown 13-11.

#3 Red M&Ms (8-3) vs #14 Joan Jett and the Blackhearts (1-10)

In the greatest game ever played at Balboa, Red pulled off a great win over the Blackhearts, 15-13. Both teams were missing several players that fateful night, and there are rumors that Black will be missing Sam Regnier for the tournament. Since they finished last in the regular season, they have first choice of players on the Waiting List. Depending on who they pick up and how quickly they gel with said player, this could be a VERY interesting game. There are rumors that in their Friday night game, Red was up 12-6 against Blue Sky and called a timeout just to discuss potentially throwing the game like Gray to avoid the #3 seed for a different first round opponent. The result of the secret ballot was to finish off Blue Sky, celebrate Bacon’s birthday, and face Black in the first round anyway. We’ll see how it works out.

Predition: Red 13-10, in the most epic game ever played in Pomona.

#6 Garfield Orange (5-6) vs #11 Forest Moon of Endor (3-7-1)

This is the only first round game featuring two teams that did not play each other in the regular season. Orange ended their season 1-2 in their last 3 games of the season, but their two losses were to Pink and Gold – not exactly cakewalks. Forest on the other hand beat Gold (I think Gold had 6 players), and ended their season with a tie – he only tie of the co-ed season. A tie. This isn’t soccer. I’d rather let the other team win than settle for a tie. As Navy football coach Eddie Erdelatz said after a scoreless tie against Duke in 1953, “A tie is like kissing your sister.” The Forest Moon will want to rebound from this travesty, but without Ben Potash I think Orange will ride Rob Severson’s hucks right into the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Orange 13-9.

BYES: #1 Dexys Midnight Runners (11-1) and #2 Pretty in Pink (10-1)

Midnight may have won the regular season crown, but Pink wins this bye since Simon gets to sleep late and bike to the fields.

QUARTERFINALS

#1 Dexys Midnight Runners vs #8 Whitesnake

First round byes are always dangerous. You show up right at game time, woof down your egg mcmuffin, throw on your cleats, and expect to beat a team that just finished a tough game. You are refreshed from getting to sleep until 10am and it should be no contest. Then, 5 points into the game, you find yourself down 4-1 and then you really wake up. This is NOT what is going to happen to Midnight. Captain Frankie Rho will be the first to remind you that he has coached a team into the semifinals in 42 consecutive summer league tournaments and has coached or single handedly carried a team to at least the quarterfinals in every major ultimate tournament in North America. Frankie will have his team ready, sweating, and running some drill no one has ever seen before. Fact, is they are undefeated for a reason and they know they are the team to beat. Unfortunately this is one of the scariest matchups for Midnight. White has the advantage of having just played Midnight earlier this past Tuesday. The loss is fresh on their minds, and they know the adjustments they need to make to get it done this time. My gut tells me to pick White over Midnight in the upset of the tournament, but I just can’t bet against history. Frankie will extend his active captaining streak to 43 consecutive summer league semis reached.

Prediction: Midnight 13-10.

#4 Castle Grayskull vs #5 Solid Gold

I wish my team had a bye so I could watch this one. It’s always fun to watch AJ vs. BOFA. It is awesome that these two teams met in Week 1, and these teams will battle it out again at season’s end to decide who continues their run for the championship. Those are some tough bookends. Gray lost in that first week 11-13, and even though it is a distant memory I’m sure they remember every mistake that cost them that W. Each team has had its issues coming down the home stretch of the season, whether it be personnel issues and/or chemistry issues. All of that is in the past come tournament time, and both of these teams will want to make it to the next round. Gold will be missing Erika Swanson, but Grey will be missing Sarah VanWagenen. That would have also been an exciting matchup to watch. I think Gold has the slightly deeper roster overall, and that will ultimately prove to be the difference. Everything will play to seed until here.

Prediction: Gold 13-11.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket…

#2 Pretty in Pink vs #7 Jerry Brown

That situation I suggested above that happens to teams that have a first round bye could happen to Pink if they are not careful. I know if I could bike to the fields, I would still be rubbing sleep from my eyes, but Simon is a professional and the only reason he would be late is because he lost track of time while he was doing his morning calisthenics routine or something. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pink down early, but there is no way that Brown will run away with the game. Pink will either be ready to go from the start or will wake up sometime in the first 5 points. Then, they will literally run away with it. Pink is just too fast. Unless Brown is able to preserve their legs from their first game and play absolute shut-down zone, I am not sure they will be able to keep up. Pink strides into the semis.

Prediction: Pink 13-8.

#3 Red M&Ms vs #6 Garfield Orange

Red beat Orange pretty handily in Week 3, but Orange was missing several key men players that night. It won’t be nearly as lopsided this time around. If you like big, ill-advised hucks this will be the quarterfinals game to watch because it will feature at least 6 players that notoriously like to let it fly. Imagine if they are all on the field at the same time. Forget fundamentals. There are going to be some very long or some very short points. This should be a hard fought game and it will probably be one of those “whoever catches the most swill wins” type of games. There are just too many variables in this game, especially if the wind picks up. I was going to flip a coin, but Red did it before and I think they will do it again. Red gets my nod in a close one.

Prediction: Red 13-11.

SEMIFINALS

So far everything has played to seed except for #5 over #4. And that one hardly falls into the “upset” category. Boring right? Well I think the semis is where it hits the fan.

#1 Dexys Midnight Runners vs #5 Solid Gold

Midnight and Gold both had tough games to get here. The problem with continuing to win is that your day never gets any easier. At this point in the tournament it is all about making fewer mistakes while everyone is getting more tired. There are more spectators as teams finish their day and there is a different energy surrounding the games. People have their favorites, and I’m not sure how many people wearing colors other than a certain deep shade of blue will be cheering for Midnight to finish with an unblemished record. My crystal disc shows this one being close all the way to the end, possibly even tied at 11s. This game will be played with solid fundamentals and not a lot of mistakes, but the gathering crowd wanting to see the final’s favorite will push Gold into the finals.

Prediction: Gold 13-11.

#2 Pretty in Pink vs #3 Red M&Ms

I predicted an easier quarterfinal game for Pink, so it is going to be tough for Red to overcome the extra mileage of the additional game and coming out of a long battle against Orange. Red had trouble keeping up with Pink’s speed in the regular season and dropped the game 15-12. Thank goodness for byes. If history repeats itself, both teams will throw zone early. The defenses will be evenly matched, and there will be plenty of D. In the end I think Red handles the increasing wind slightly better and wins a capped game because Pink tired themselves out in the pool.

Prediction: Red 12-10.

FINALS

To make it to this point it takes a long of different things: desire to make the play when you are tired, trusting your teammates, focus to avoid mistakes, avoiding injury, and sometimes just plain good luck for a disc to hit a thermal for extra hang time or a bounce into your hands off someone’s face.

#3 Red M&Ms vs #5 Solid Gold

These two teams met in Week 7, and Red had a huge comeback win against a shorthanded Gold team, 15-13. Minh had the second best individual performance I personally saw in summer league (second only to Brandon Malmberg in Week 1 – Red vs White). I think these two teams are the best from top to bottom. If every player on the team has to play an equal number of points, these are the last 2 standing. I would bet that Gold has more tournament experience among their players, but I am hoping the crowd will be on Red’s side since I gave you a couple power rankings. After 300 computer simulations factoring in player self ratings, weather, regular season performance, and crowd noise, Red narrowly won the majority of the games 120-118-12. And with a win for Red in Men’s, this means two consecutive years with the same color winning both leagues.

Prediction: Red 15-13.

There are a lot of great teams in summer league this year and I hope that the finals are as good as they were last year, no matter who makes it to the championship. Good luck everybody (but not too much).